|Dr Kate Ren|
Background Decision analytic models such as economic models submitted to NICE and similar reimbursement authorities around the world often incorporate evidence in the form of expert opinion. In particular, when suitable data are lacking, analysts may be dependent on expert opinion to obtain appropriate values for model inputs/parameters. To quantify expert uncertainty about such quantities, a process of elicitation can be used to obtain suitable probability distributions following a process of elicitation. This practical course aims to provide participants with the skills required to elicit experts’ probability distributions about unknown quantities of interest. The course is based around SHELF: a behavioural aggregation method for eliciting distributions from multiple experts.
Who will benefit from the course?
The course is suitable for health economists, statisticians, systematic reviewers and decision-makers interested in the elicitation of experts' probability distributions about unknown quantities of interest to populate their models. The course is also suitable for researchers in other disciplines who wish to learn about expert elicitation. No previous knowledge of elicitation is assumed.
The first two days will comprise a comprehensive short course, Elicitation with SHELF. The course will cover the principles of expert elicitation and the SHELF method, together with practical considerations in planning and running a SHELF elicitation workshop.
Participants may choose to attend the first two days only. The key role in the SHELF method is that of the facilitator. The third day, Advanced Facilitation, will be an intensive, small group, hands-on session for participants who wish to be trained to act as facilitators. Each trainee will gain practical experience of facilitating a SHELF elicitation workshop, using carefully designed and realistic scenarios. Trainees will also gain experience in another important role, that of recorder. This session is open to a maximum of four trainees.
Two-day elicitation with SHELF £500
Advanced facilitation day £1300
Course fees include lunch and refreshments. Participants will need to arrange their own accommodation.
For further details and registration, please go to