A key part of HTAs is the extrapolation of short term survival data. The NICE Decision Support Unit has produced guidance on this, which has been developed further in a recent article in Medical Decision Making by HEDS’ own Nick Latimer…..
Latimer NR. Survival analysis for economic evaluations alongside clinical trials--extrapolation with patient-level data: inconsistencies, limitations, and a practical guide. Med Decis Making. 2013 Aug;33(6):743-54.
But there is dissent. An alternative view from Adrian Bagust has appeared…..
Bagust A, Beale A. Survival analysis and extrapolation modeling of time-to-event clinical trial data for economic evaluation an alternative approach. Medical Decision Making (online before print)
All models are wrong. But which approach is least wrong?