HEDS is part of the School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR) at the University of Sheffield. We undertake research, teaching, training and consultancy on all aspects of health related decision science, with a particular emphasis on health economics, HTA and evidence synthesis.

Thursday, 24 October 2013

Alternative views of survival modeling

A key part of HTAs is the extrapolation of short term survival data. The NICE Decision Support Unit has produced guidance on this, which has been developed further in a recent article in Medical Decision Making by HEDS’ own Nick Latimer…..

Latimer NR. Survival analysis for economic evaluations alongside clinical trials--extrapolation with patient-level data: inconsistencies, limitations, and a practical guide. Med Decis Making. 2013 Aug;33(6):743-54.

But there is dissent. An alternative view from Adrian Bagust has appeared…..

Bagust A, Beale A. Survival analysis and extrapolation modeling of time-to-event clinical trial data for economic evaluation an alternative approach. Medical Decision Making (online before print)

All models are wrong. But which approach is least wrong?