Sponsor: Bowel Cancer UK - starting 1st July 2018
Background
Survival from colorectal cancer (CRC) is strongly related to stage at diagnosis. There is overwhelming evidence that national screening programmes reduce incidence and mortality. Stratified screening could potentially provide a way of improving the efficiency of screening by targeting limited resources to those at highest risk. We have previously published a systematic review of risk prediction models for CRC and externally validated those including phenotypic variables in UK Biobank.
Aims
To assess the potential impact of introducing risk stratification using phenotypic or genomic information into the current English bowel screening programme.
Method
The research includes three Work Packages (WP): WP1- An update of our previous systematic review to identify risk models which include genomic information to predict the future incidence of colorectal cancer; WP2- External validation of the risk models identified in WP1 in the UK Biobank cohort; and WP3- Impact and cost-effectiveness analysis to model the potential for population health and impact on the health service if risk stratification using the best performing phenotypic or genomic risk model was introduced into the English bowel screening programme.
Expected outcomes
This work will inform decisions around future stratification of CRC screening programmes using both phenotypic and/or genomic information.